Mortality from Coronary Artery Disease during Dengue Epidemics

Oliveira, Marcio Lassance Martins de
Mattos, Marco Antonio
Santos, Marisa
Tura, Bernardo Rangel
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International Journal of Cardiovascular Sciences
Background: The possibility of increased mortality from coronary artery disease (CAD) during dengue epidemics is frequently taken into account to create extra cardiologic beds. Objective: Describe a possible association between the mortality from CAD and the reported cases of dengue virus infections in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Methods: Two time series were developed. The first series of CAD mortality comprised 313,503 patients between January 1996 and December 2010. The disease codes used were all from I20 to I25 (ICD-10). The second series comprised 275,227 cases of dengue fever reported between January 1994 and December 2010. The Box-Jenkins methodology was employed for modeling the series; and both cross correlation and intervention analysis were used to evaluate such association. Results: The time series of CAD mortality best fits into the model SARIMA (1,1,1) x (1,0,1)365, where annual seasonality is reflected by an increase in the number of cases in winter months. The intervention analysis showed absence of influence of cases of dengue fever in CAD mortality with a correlation coefficient of 0.0018. Conclusions: There is no correlation between CAD mortality and the number of dengue fever cases. CAD mortality is higher in winter.
Time series studies, Dengue, Coronary disease
Oliveira MLM, Mattos MA, Santos M, Tura BR. Mortality from coronary artery disease during dengue epidemics. International Journal of Cardiovascular Sciences, 2015;28(1):51-60. Doi: 10.5935/2359-4802.20150008.