A novel risk score for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation in subjects with chronic chagas heart disease
A novel risk score for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation in subjects with chronic chagas heart disease
| dc.contributor.author | Barbosa, Paulo R. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Tura, Bernardo R. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Barbosa-Filho, José | |
| dc.contributor.author | Kantharia, Bharat K. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-12-18T13:21:06Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-12-18T13:21:06Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2010 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Introduction: Atrial fibrillation affects about 20% of subjects with chronic Chagas disease (CCD) and heralds poor prognosis. This study prospectively investigated echocardiographic and electrocardiographic parameters aiming at creating a risk score for new-onset AF (NOAF) in CCD and to compare its performance to Rassi score. Methods: Clinically stable outpatients with CCD (34 to 74 y.o, 38 males) staged according to Los Andes (Class I: N=28; II: N=48; III: N=24) were enrolled. Patients were assessed by 12-lead ECG, 24h ambulatory ECG and 1D/2D echocardiogram. NOAF lasting >24h was tracked at three to six-month intervals. Results: During a follow-up of (mean±SEM) 91.2 ± 3.2 months, 18 developed NOAF (incidence: 30.2 ± 2.6 /year), and 20 died (rate: 26.4 ± 1.4 /year). Relative risk of NOAF for cardiac death was 3.6 (p=0.001). In multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, PVC>3,000/24h (p=0.02), LAD>3.3cm (p=0.001), and PAP>30mmHg (p=0.004) were independent predictors for NOAF (Table inset). A prognostic score for NOAF was developed by calculating weighted points proportional to beta coefficient in Cox model (table inset). ROC analysis of novel score showed optimal cut-off value at 2 (Figure A). KM curves of novel score for NOAF is presented in Figure B (proportional hazard test: rho=0.1; p=0.6). In 1,000 bootstraps, ROC c-statistic of novel score was significantly superior to Rassi score (Figure C). Conclusions: In CCD, high grade PVC, LAD>3.3cm and PAP>30mmHg are independent predictors for NOAF. Novel risk score improves NOAF predictive accuracy in this population. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Barbosa PB, Tura BR, Barbosa-Filho J, Kantharia BK. A novel risk score for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation in subjects with chronic chagas heart disease. Heart rhythm. 2010; 7(5): S216. Doi: 10.1016/j.hrthm.2010.03.031. | |
| dc.identifier.other | DOI: 10.1016/j.hrthm.2010.03.031 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://dspace.inc.saude.gov.br/handle/123456789/380 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Heart Rhythm | |
| dc.title | A novel risk score for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation in subjects with chronic chagas heart disease | |
| dc.type | Article |